My inclination was to write an additional commentary on the topic I covered last month: uncertainty. The fact is that all of us are probably punch drunk watching the business news broadcasts and reading about the disruption across Washington, D.C. in the business and popular consumer press. Enough already. There is nothing we can do about the current air of…
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Uncertainty. The single biggest downdraft on consumer confidence, or sentiment, depending on which measure you read, but they mean basically the same. And there is so much uncertainty right now, confidence is plummeting with what could be a profound effect on the economy. Let me explain what has changed. If you read my columns regularly, you know that I place…
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A couple of months ago, I wrote that I was tapping the brakes on my expectations for the construction economy based on some unexpected changes in circumstances: interest rates are not falling as quickly as had been predicted in the face of stubborn inflation, coupled with consumer sentiment that is on a wholly unexpected slide despite the fact that the…
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50 billion dollars. That is 50,000 million dollars. I like to use that analogy so that readers can understand the magnitude of a billion dollars, which is 1,000 million dollars. That is the estimate for what the devastation in southern California’s recent fires will ultimately cost private and public property owners. Insurance is one of the great gifts of finance…
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I have been extremely bullish on the economy in general, and the construction economy in particular, for years now. Going back to pre-pandemic times, I have continued to preach that all is well with the construction economy, despite Covid and the high interest rates that followed. And I have written often about how the strength of the consumer, and the…
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Last summer, I wrote about the contraction in office space occupancy as the cultural shift of Work from Home tightens its grip on America’s office space industry, despite efforts by high-profile employers to corral their far-flung workforces and bring them back to the office in hopes of greater collaboration and efficiency. Some like J.P. Morgan Chase and Walmart have basically…
Read MoreAs I sit down to write this, the presidential election has not taken place yet, but we can be assured of one thing: When you read this, we will have a new President-Elect. And that election will have very little effect on our companies, our customers, and our vendors, as daily life will go on, and we will continue to…
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There is a series of metrics and indicators that point to continuing strength in the economy, with arrows from every imaginable direction pointing upward. Of course, leading off all the good news was the first interest rate cut by the Fed in four years. In September, the all-but-assured rate cut of 25 basis points was supplanted by a far more…
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Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s remarks at the very exclusive Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in August signaled the Fed’s forthcoming action to reduce rates, starting in September. But even before that, in a sign that homebuyers sensed what was coming, sales of new homes rose unexpectedly in July, following significant revisions in the previous month’s data. Sales of newly built, single-family…
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Some of the brightest minds in the economic research area are on Wall Street, working for either major investment banks or business news services with a global following. As recently as a couple of weeks ago, they were issuing research that warned of a slowdown coming in the economy: one began their note by saying that after having boomed its…
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