Uncertainty. The single biggest downdraft on consumer confidence, or sentiment, depending on which measure you read, but they mean basically the same. And there is so much uncertainty right now, confidence is plummeting with what could be a profound effect on the economy. Let me explain what has changed. If you read my columns regularly, you know that I place…
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A couple of months ago, I wrote that I was tapping the brakes on my expectations for the construction economy based on some unexpected changes in circumstances: interest rates are not falling as quickly as had been predicted in the face of stubborn inflation, coupled with consumer sentiment that is on a wholly unexpected slide despite the fact that the…
Read MoreIn the last half of April, there were a couple of seminal economic events that, taken together, mark an example of proverbial shoes dropping, and for the first time in years, marks a cautionary signal on the economy. The first shoe to drop was when Fed Chairman Jay Powell unexpectedly announced that firmer-than-expected inflation during the first quarter has called…
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As I have written many times in the past, we pay close attention to both the Conference Board’s monthly measure of consumer confidence, as well as a similar measure from the University of Michigan which they characterize as consumer sentiment. Both descriptions are really interchangeable, as they measure how consumers feel about the times, both politically and economically. We publish…
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A couple of issues ago, I wrote about how we are willing ourselves into a recession even as the economic indicators point in a different direction. In recent months, we have studied a large variety of economic indicators as we prepared to launch our AVP Pulse Index in cooperation with our sister publication, Rock Products. Like so many periods in…
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by Pierre G. Villere I want to expand on my thinking in last month’s column, and start by dispelling what I am being asked about often these days: Will the construction economy stay strong? The answer is a resounding yes, and it will not experience a slowdown anytime soon. So there. There are too many positive indicators that signal a…
Read MoreAs a firm, we bristle with optimism. Yes, sometimes it gets tempered when things aren’t going so well in our industry or the economy as a whole, but those setbacks tend to be short-lived. Of course, we missed the timing on what turned out to be a painfully long Great Recession, which will go down in the history books as…
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