A couple of months ago, I wrote that I was tapping the brakes on my expectations for the construction economy based on some unexpected changes in circumstances: interest rates are not falling as quickly as had been predicted in the face of stubborn inflation, coupled with consumer sentiment that is on a wholly unexpected slide despite the fact that the…
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50 billion dollars. That is 50,000 million dollars. I like to use that analogy so that readers can understand the magnitude of a billion dollars, which is 1,000 million dollars. That is the estimate for what the devastation in southern California’s recent fires will ultimately cost private and public property owners. Insurance is one of the great gifts of finance…
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I have been extremely bullish on the economy in general, and the construction economy in particular, for years now. Going back to pre-pandemic times, I have continued to preach that all is well with the construction economy, despite Covid and the high interest rates that followed. And I have written often about how the strength of the consumer, and the…
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Last summer, I wrote about the contraction in office space occupancy as the cultural shift of Work from Home tightens its grip on America’s office space industry, despite efforts by high-profile employers to corral their far-flung workforces and bring them back to the office in hopes of greater collaboration and efficiency. Some like J.P. Morgan Chase and Walmart have basically…
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Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s remarks at the very exclusive Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in August signaled the Fed’s forthcoming action to reduce rates, starting in September. But even before that, in a sign that homebuyers sensed what was coming, sales of new homes rose unexpectedly in July, following significant revisions in the previous month’s data. Sales of newly built, single-family…
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I live in suburbia. My town just outside of New Orleans looks like every other suburb in America, replete with good schools, a vibrant restaurant scene, and plenty of traffic at rush hour and during school times. My wife and I moved here 32 years ago, escaping the challenges of urban living—crime and potholes—for the comfort and security of life…
Read MoreIn the last half of April, there were a couple of seminal economic events that, taken together, mark an example of proverbial shoes dropping, and for the first time in years, marks a cautionary signal on the economy. The first shoe to drop was when Fed Chairman Jay Powell unexpectedly announced that firmer-than-expected inflation during the first quarter has called…
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All the arrows are pointing to an even stronger housing market in 2024 than many had expected, and this prospect is streaming through all manner of indicators, from builder confidence to buyer motivation. And this beyond the fact that interest rates have barely moved; the widespread enthusiasm is driven by the promise of three interest rate cuts in 2024 which…
Read MoreThere has been a confluence of events and happenings in the past few weeks that, when taken together, portend a much healthier new year in 2024 than anyone could have imagined as recently as just this past fall. First, news about inflation has surprised everyone, as we witnessed a sharp decline in the rate of inflation in just the last…
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I have written in the past about Hans Christian Anderson’s famous folktale from the 1830s, “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” and some recent events prompt me to remind readers about this very instructive lesson in life. The story relates a tale of two swindlers who arrive at the capital city of an emperor who spends lavishly on clothing at the expense…
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