In the last half of April, there were a couple of seminal economic events that, taken together, mark an example of proverbial shoes dropping, and for the first time in years, marks a cautionary signal on the economy. The first shoe to drop was when Fed Chairman Jay Powell unexpectedly announced that firmer-than-expected inflation during the first quarter has called…
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The Outlook For Housing Looks Promising This Year
All the arrows are pointing to an even stronger housing market in 2024 than many had expected, and this prospect is streaming through all manner of indicators, from builder confidence to buyer motivation. And this beyond the fact that interest rates have barely moved; the widespread enthusiasm is driven by the promise of three interest rate cuts in 2024 which…
Read MoreThe Overlooked Gift to Our Economy
by Pierre G. Villere Just a couple of months ago, I wrote about the outlook for a strong economy for the foreseeable future, and I cited the confluence of events that is apparent around us: Inflation that is falling, the outlook for interest rate cuts later this year, and the robust performance of the stock markets that is bolstering everyone’s 401(k)…
Read MoreA Return to Population Growth
One of the key drivers to growth in our economy is sheer population growth, which by its very nature spurs household formations. But so many other corners of our economy benefit from population growth other than just the housing market. These new entrants to our economy have to buy goods and services, put gas in their cars, pursue entertainment options,…
Read MoreAll Arrows Are Pointing to a Stronger Economy in 2024
There has been a confluence of events and happenings in the past few weeks that, when taken together, portend a much healthier new year in 2024 than anyone could have imagined as recently as just this past fall. First, news about inflation has surprised everyone, as we witnessed a sharp decline in the rate of inflation in just the last…
Read MoreGoofy Ideas
I have written in the past about Hans Christian Anderson’s famous folktale from the 1830s, “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” and some recent events prompt me to remind readers about this very instructive lesson in life. The story relates a tale of two swindlers who arrive at the capital city of an emperor who spends lavishly on clothing at the expense…
Read MoreConsumer Confidence Contrasts with Economic Growth
As I have written many times in the past, we pay close attention to both the Conference Board’s monthly measure of consumer confidence, as well as a similar measure from the University of Michigan which they characterize as consumer sentiment. Both descriptions are really interchangeable, as they measure how consumers feel about the times, both politically and economically. We publish…
Read MoreLeverage Shifts to Employers
The Covid-19 pandemic was one of the most disruptive events of the last 100-plus years, on the level of two world wars, although it did not last as long. But like the world wars of the past century, when women were enlisted to work in factories in all manner of jobs previously held by men so the men could go…
Read MoreThe Science of Pricing Concrete
The day before this column was due, I suffered a serious hand injury which made it impossible to write on a keyboard. I gave up on writing with dictation software years ago, as it is the connection with the keyboard that allows me to do my best work. With my editor’s permission, I dusted off an educational column I wrote…
Read MoreThe Insurance Challenge Is Here
As I travel around the country visiting with clients and making industry presentations, I hear the same from almost every producer about the challenges in their businesses: not enough drivers, fuel costs, and materials cost rising faster than they can pass them on among the most frequent. But there is another shoe about to drop that may impact producers, both…
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