The red-hot housing market is leading the economic recovery

by Pierre G. Villere As I approach five decades of practicing in the investment banking world, one truism that has been consistent is that housing always leads us out of recessions. As a matter of fact, the housing industry serves as a source of strength during an economic recovery, as has been the case in nearly every recession over the…

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Finally! The millennials unleash

by Pierre G. Villere I have been told in the past that I have a crystal ball. I don’t … like the Hans Christian Andersen fairy tale, “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” I just make sure to see the obvious, while others go through life with filtered views that obscure reality. The unleashed power of the millennials and the impact they…

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The long shadow tariffs cast on our recovery

by Pierre G. Villere

The headlights are pointed uphill. After weeks and months of an economic shutdown, artificially imposed by the necessity to quarantine and therefore close virtually all business activity, the U.S. and global economies are slowly re-awakening. Countries all over the world are taking phased approaches to re-opening, with constant monitoring of Covid-19 outbreaks to avoid spikes or recurrences. And as I have written previously, my view today is very different than it was in early to mid-April; I think the damage has been far greater, and runs much deeper, than I expected back then. The impact of this multi-month shutdown will take a far longer period of time to recover from, although the construction industry recovery may outpace other sectors of the economy.

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The Confidence Game

by Pierre G. Villere

My well-known optimism, even throughout the last Great Recession, has been shaken by the swift and sudden collapse of the global economy, including ours here in the U.S., in the face of the novel coronavirus also known as Covid-19. I am not any different than most consumers, except that I probably fall within the upper tier of those who see life through rose-colored glasses, and therefore espouse optimism at every turn.

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A Black Swan event for sure

By Pierre G. Villere

I hope you read my column last month; I worried about the events surrounding the unfolding coronavirus epidemic in Milan and northern Italy, and feared what might happen if it struck an American city. I described the epidemic as a Black Swan, a theory that refers to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. I had no idea we would witness what has occurred since I wrote that column.

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A Black Swan Event?

By Pierre Villere

For months now, I have been extolling the virtues of the U.S. economy, as well as the larger global markets, and touting the slow-but-steady strength of U.S. business and industry, especially the strong construction markets that drive volume in our concrete businesses. And as I have written so many times before, my philosophy is that “sentiment is self-fulfilling.” So now we have the coronavirus, and some of the most recent reactions to it have left me disquieted, wondering if a “Black Swan Event” could upend the U.S. economy.

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Let’s be more like Australia’s economy

By Pierre G. Villere

This time last year, the business press was having a field day with their occasional Chicken Little prognostications that the economy was headed into recession, and the talking heads on the business news cable networks were the worst. Their bearish view, derived from the tiniest of economic indicators, threw the stock market into a tailspin the last couple of months of 2018, which continued into the first part of 2019, giving pause to the entire economy.

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The stock market rocks, the 2020 economy rolls on

By Pierre Villere

I can’t help but follow up on my column from a couple of months ago when I opined that a strong stock market was a harbinger of the economy, and what lies ahead. Now that 2019 and the decade it capped have come to an end, it’s worth reviewing the markets and what they foreshadow. In addition, the many geopolitical pressures from various directions don’t even seem to be moving the needle on the economy in particular, and sentiment as a driver of the underlying economy in general. Let’s take a look at both.

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