Expect the economy to reach pre-pandemic levels this year

by Pierre G. Villere A couple of months ago, I wrote about my most recent crystal ball prognostications, and expected the decade of the 2020s to resemble the 1920s, a period of unprecedented growth and prosperity coming out of World War I and the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19. I dubbed this economic expectation for the 2020s the “Roaring Twenties…

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Does the suburban shift mean the end of urban life? Not so fast

by Pierre G. Villere In one of the scenes in the iconic motion picture Casablanca, Captain Renault attempts to arrest the protagonist, Victor Lazlo, and in one the most famous lines in movie history, Humphrey Bogart’s character Rick Blaine pulls a gun on Renault and utters the famous words “Not so fast, Louie”… .

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Roaring Twenties Redux?

by Pierre G. Villere Last month, I wrote about the lasting effects of Covid-19 long after a vaccine and herd immunity allow us to climb out of our world of lockdowns, quarantines, masking, and social distancing. I keep hearing about the “new normal,” and thought it would be interesting to review how the world emerged from the last great pandemic,…

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The red-hot housing market is leading the economic recovery

by Pierre G. Villere As I approach five decades of practicing in the investment banking world, one truism that has been consistent is that housing always leads us out of recessions. As a matter of fact, the housing industry serves as a source of strength during an economic recovery, as has been the case in nearly every recession over the…

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Finally! The millennials unleash

by Pierre G. Villere I have been told in the past that I have a crystal ball. I don’t … like the Hans Christian Andersen fairy tale, “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” I just make sure to see the obvious, while others go through life with filtered views that obscure reality. The unleashed power of the millennials and the impact they…

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The long shadow tariffs cast on our recovery

by Pierre G. Villere

The headlights are pointed uphill. After weeks and months of an economic shutdown, artificially imposed by the necessity to quarantine and therefore close virtually all business activity, the U.S. and global economies are slowly re-awakening. Countries all over the world are taking phased approaches to re-opening, with constant monitoring of Covid-19 outbreaks to avoid spikes or recurrences. And as I have written previously, my view today is very different than it was in early to mid-April; I think the damage has been far greater, and runs much deeper, than I expected back then. The impact of this multi-month shutdown will take a far longer period of time to recover from, although the construction industry recovery may outpace other sectors of the economy.

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The Confidence Game

by Pierre G. Villere

My well-known optimism, even throughout the last Great Recession, has been shaken by the swift and sudden collapse of the global economy, including ours here in the U.S., in the face of the novel coronavirus also known as Covid-19. I am not any different than most consumers, except that I probably fall within the upper tier of those who see life through rose-colored glasses, and therefore espouse optimism at every turn.

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